Without meaningful improvements in prevention and early diagnosis, the number of women living with cardiovascular disease in the United States is expected to rise sharply over the next three decades, according to a new scientific statement from the American Heart Association.

Drawing on long-term data from two major national health surveys and U.S. Census population forecasts, researchers estimate that the share of women with at least one form of cardiovascular disease will increase from 10.7% in 2020 to 14.4% by 2050 — a rise of more than one-third.

Cardiovascular disease is already the leading cause of death among women in the United States. The most common type is coronary heart disease, which develops when fatty deposits, known as plaque, accumulate inside the arteries that supply blood to the heart. As these arteries narrow, they deliver less oxygen-rich blood, increasing the risk of chest pain, heart attack, and long-term heart damage.

Other major conditions included in the analysis are:

  • Heart failure, when the heart cannot pump blood effectively.
  • Atrial fibrillation, an irregular heart rhythm that can lead to stroke.
  • Stroke, caused by interrupted blood flow to the brain.

Researchers described the findings as a clear signal that current efforts are not enough. While treatments for heart disease have advanced significantly, preventing disease before it develops — and identifying it early — remains a central challenge.

How the Projections Were Made

The estimates are based on data from:

  • The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2015–2020), which collects detailed information about health, diet, and medical conditions from adults and children across the country.
  • The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2015–2019), which gathers information from families, medical providers, and employers about health care use and costs.

Researchers combined these historical trends with Census population growth projections to estimate what cardiovascular health may look like in 2050.

Among adult women, projected rates are expected to increase as follows:

  • Coronary heart disease: from 6.9% to 8.2%
  • Heart failure: from 2.5% to 3.6%
  • Stroke: from 4.1% to 6.7%
  • Atrial fibrillation: from 1.6% to 2.3%

An aging population accounts for part of the rise. As women live longer, the likelihood of developing heart-related conditions increases. However, age alone does not explain the trend.

Rising Risk Factors in Younger Women

Several well-established risk factors are becoming more common, including:

Each of these conditions increases the risk of heart disease on its own. When combined, the risk rises even further.

If current patterns continue:

  • High blood pressure among adult women may rise from 48.6% to 59.1%.
  • Diabetes may increase from 14.9% to 25.3%.
  • Obesity may climb from 43.9% to 61.2%.

Of particular concern is the growth of these risk factors among younger women, ages 20 to 40. Obesity rates among girls are also projected to increase significantly, from 19.6% to 32.0%.

These early-life patterns may lead to earlier onset of heart disease in future generations.

Survey data suggest that some health behaviors may improve modestly. Smoking rates are expected to continue declining, and fewer women report poor diet or lack of physical activity. However, sleep problems — another contributor to heart risk — are projected to become more common.

The report also indicates that adverse trends are likely to be more pronounced among women who identify as Black, Hispanic, Indigenous, or multiracial, raising concerns about widening health disparities.

The Role — and Limits — of Weight-Loss Medications

The projections did not factor in the growing use of GLP-1 medications, which are prescribed for Type 2 diabetes and weight management. Clinical research has shown that these drugs can help reduce body weight and lower the risk of repeat heart attacks and heart failure events.

However, their long-term impact on national heart disease rates remains uncertain. Questions remain about sustained effectiveness, safety over decades of use, cost, and access. Some patients discontinue treatment because of side effects and regain lost weight. Out-of-pocket expenses may also limit availability in certain communities, potentially widening existing disparities.

What Women Can Do Now

While national trends are concerning, individual risk is not fixed. Most heart disease risk is influenced by modifiable factors.

Women can lower their lifetime risk by:

  • Scheduling regular health checkups.
  • Monitoring blood pressure, blood sugar, and cholesterol.
  • Taking prescribed medications as directed.
  • Maintaining healthy eating and physical activity habits.
  • Addressing weight management early.
  • Paying close attention to health during pregnancy and menopause, when blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood sugar levels can change.

Heart disease prevention can begin at any age. Awareness, routine screening, and sustained healthy habits remain the most effective tools currently available.

Although projections point to rising numbers, early action — both at the individual and community levels — has the potential to change the course of the next 30 years.